Merchant ships in 2030

Everyone likes having a stab at “futurology” - imagining what things will be like twenty years from now. But when it comes to ship design, we move into serious matters, because twenty

years from now, many of today’s ships will probably still be in operation and will be requiring replacement with, hopefully, something better.
“Trends” can provide something of a guide to what ships might look like in 2030. Ships are servants of trade, and we need to look at possible trade changes that might in some way effect the design of ships. We are probably safe to suggest that the next twenty years are unlikely to see any alternatives to ships for transport of goods and even people, but some of the main cargo routes may well change.
There are questions that need to be asked about certain scenarios that might affect the employment of ships. Might, for instance, oil refineries tend to become relocated close to the sources of crude oil? Some suggest that oil producers wishing to add value to their products might implement such a change, with a dramatic effect upon the demand for crude oil carriers. The “added value” concept might become established in the bulk transport business, with less waste, for instance carried by sea to consumers of iron ore.
It is important to consider developments and economics, if the spectacular industrial growth of China, India and Brazil are to continue, and make some sort of estimation of the way that this might affect sea trade. The development of energy sources in the polar regions might be expected to have become well-established by 2030, whether the “global warming” that has seen the retreat of some polar ice will continue, or not.
It is impossible to ignore the environmental pressures that are increasingly affecting shipping. Will oil still be the fuel most used aboard ship? Might LNG, or even nuclear be alternatives offering cleaner energy? How entrenched might slow steaming to cause minimum environmental impact have become in the intervening years? Will the price of sea transport, which has been extraordinarily cheap since industrial shipping arrived, have to greatly increase to pay for the environmental benefits that the public apparently wants? It might seem inconceivable today, but might international trade be reduced as a result of some demand for “locally” produced products, or a reversion to protectionism?
All these sorts of questions, some of which are philosophical and all of which are political need to be thought through as we consider the future of the shipping industry. Seascape No.105 will look next at the shape of future ships.

Source: Bimco